THE URUGUAY ROUND AND AFRICA - A GLOBAL, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-ANALYSIS

Using a 10-region, 12-sector model of the global economy, projected fo rward to 2005 with and without implementation of the Uruguay Round (UR ) trade agreements, we confirm earlier expectations that Africa is lik ely to be the only major region of the world to lose from UR implement ation - but find that UR-induced costs would be far outweighed by the potential gains from catching up with other low-income countries in ag ricultural productivity and in transport costs. Furthermore, we find t hat implementing the UR accelerates a resource-driven shift in Africa' s comparative advantage towards agriculture (as opposed to mining or m anufacturing) and towards trade with Asia (as opposed to Europe). Reco gnising and supporting this 'Asia/agriculture' development strategy wi ll be a key to raising African incomes over the coming decade.