SEASONAL RAINFALL VARIABILITY, THE INCIDENCE OF HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER WITH RENAL SYNDROME, AND PREDICTION OF THE DISEASE IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF CHINA

To investigate determinants of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome ( HFRS) in low-lying areas of China, the authors studied Chuigang and Wa nggang communities in Anhui Province, These adjacent farming communiti es have a population of about 100,000. Data were collected from the tw o communities in 1961-1977 and from Yingshang County in 1983-1995; inf ormation covered the incidence of HFRS, amount of precipitation, diffe rences in the water level of the Huai River, density of Apodemus agrar ius, autumn crop production, and areas of inundated farmland. Correlat ion and multiple linear regression analyses were used to estimate the relation between seasonal rainfall, density of mice, occupational fact ors, and occurrence of the disease, Associations were observed between the incidence of HFRS and the amount of precipitation, the water leve l of the Huai River, and the areas of inundated farmland in Chuigang c ommunity, The smaller the water-level difference, the less farmland wa s inundated and the higher the incidence of HFRS, In Wanggang communit y, the density of A. agrarius (r(1) = 0.63, p = 0.02), the water-level difference in the Huai River (r(2) = -0.81, p = 0.007), and crop prod uction (r(3) = 0.96, p = 0.005) were correlated with the incidence of HFRS. The regression analyses based on Wanggang community suggested th at these indexes could be used as predictive variables, and the result s from the model were well calibrated with the actual incidence of HFR S in that community (R-2 = 0.88, p < 0.01) and Yingshang County (R-2 = 0.91, P < 0.01), Am J Epidemiol 1998;148:276-81.