LONG-TERM DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTIONS IN PRECENSUS ENGLAND

Modern time series methods are applied to the analysis of annual demog raphic data for England, 1541-1800. Evidence is found of non-stationar ity in the series and of co-integration among the series. Building on economic models of historical demography, optimal inferential procedur es are implemented to estimate the structural parameters of long-term equilibria among the variables. Evidence is found for a small, but sig nificant, Malthusian 'preventive check' as well as interactions betwee n fertility, mortality and nuptiality that are consistent with the pre dictions often made in demographic studies. Tentative experiments to d etect the influence of environmental factors fail to reveal any signif icant impact on the estimates obtained.