BAYESIAN COMPOSITE QUALITATIVE FORECASTING - HOG PRICES AGAIN

A new method for forming composite qualitative forecasts is presented. A set of qualitative forecasts is evaluated using auxiliary legit mod els to predict the probability of each forecast's correctness. Individ ual model forecasts are then combined on the basis of normalized value s of these probabilities. This method is demonstrated with three sets of forecasts on the direction of change in hog prices (up or down). Th e application shows that without any information on the manner in whic h the individual forecasts are generated this method can form a compos ite forecast that is superior according to a variety of metrics for ev aluating qualitative forecasts.