BIOLOGICAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTORS OF THE ALCOHOLISM RISK - A LONGITUDINAL-STUDY

Objective: This article reviews results from an ongoing prospective st udy of 453 sons of alcoholics and controls, and presents new data from the 15-year follow-up. Method: Drinking, but not alcohol dependent, 2 0-year-old sons of alcoholics and controls were evaluated for their le vel of response (LR) to alcohol and were subsequently followed, throug h personal interviews, 10 years and 15 years later. Results: The 10-ye ar follow-up of 450 (99.3%) men and provisional analyses from the firs t 127 subjects at 15 years revealed that a low LR at about age 20 pred icted subsequent alcoholism, even after considering the original quant ity and frequency of drinking and six additional domains of influence. Regarding the latter, behavioral undercontrol and work stress appear to interact with LR, with alcohol expectancies, coping mechanisms and aspects of the drinking in the environment also appearing to add to th e model, while other aspects of life stress and the social support net work do not. Conclusions: The prospective evaluation of subjects at hi gher risk for alcoholism is a potentially powerful tool in identifying the relationships among a broad range of moderators and mediators of the alcoholism risk. The present tentative results based on the first 127 subjects are primarily heuristic as findings might change in the f ull sample. These data set the stage for completion of the 15-year fol low-up and for a subsequent 20-year evaluation which will focus on the same domains in the projected almost 560 sons and daughters of the or iginal sample.