MARKET PENETRATION SCENARIOS FOR FUEL-CELL VEHICLES

Market penetration models are presented, illustrating that direct hydr ogen fuel cell vehicles could eventually provide industry with substan tial return on investment without government subsidy, while at the sam e time significantly reducing environmental degradation and oil import s. This marker penetration model estimates the likely number of fuel c ell vehicles that might be sold in the United States over the next thr ee decades, based on the projected costs of these vehicles and the cos t of hydrogen compared to other clean vehicles that might compete for the California zero emission vehicle market. Initial results are shown comparing the marker penetration, societal benefit/cost ratios and re turn on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles co mpared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including me thanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. (C) 199 8 International Association for Hydrogen Energy.