POTENTIAL CHANGES IN TROPICAL STORMS, HURRICANES, AND EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE

Our current understanding of the ability of climate models to provide insight into the possible impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the climatology of tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall events is r eviewed. At present, because of the insufficient resolution of climate models and their generally crude representation of sub-gridscale and convective processes, little confidence can be placed in any definite predictions of such effects, although a tendency for more heavy rainfa ll events seems likely, and a modest increase in tropical cyclone inte nsities is possible. In the view of the authors, it would be unwise to exclude substantial local changes in the climatologies of these pheno mena, especially at a regional (sub-continental) scale.