POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON FIRE REGIMES IN THE TROPICS BASED ON MAGICC AND A GISS GCM-DERIVED LIGHTNING MODEL

Investigations of the ecological, atmospheric chemical, and climatic i mpacts of contemporary fires in tropical vegetation have received incr easing attention during the last 10 years. Little is known, however, a bout the impacts of climate changes on tropical vegetation and wildlan d fires. This paper summarizes the main known interactions of fire, ve getation, and atmosphere. Examples of predictive models on the impacts of climate change on the boreal and temperate zones are given in orde r to highlight the possible impacts on the tropical forest and savanna biomes and to demonstrate parameters that need to be involved in this process. Response of tropical vegetation to fire is characterized by degradation towards xerophytic and pyrophytic plant communities domina ted by grasses and fire-tolerant tree and bush invaders. The potential impacts of climate change on tropical fire regimes are investigated u sing a GISS GCM-based lightning and fire model and the Model for the A ssessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change (MAGICC).