POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON 2 NEOTROPICAL AMPHIBIAN ASSEMBLAGES

Although anuran amphibians are diverse and conspicuous in many vertebr ate communities, worldwide population declines have been observed. Cli matic change is a global factor that has been implicated in some of th ese declines. In this paper, we speculate on how Neotropical anurans m ight respond to changes in climate predicted by Hulme and Viner (1998) . We focus on two distinct groups of Neotropical anurans: frogs that l ive and oviposit in leaf litter and frogs that congregate at ponds to breed. Increased temperature, increased length of dry season, decrease d soil moisture, and increased inter-annual rainfall variability will affect Neotropical frogs strongly. We expect that these changes will d irectly affect frogs by changing reproductive success and breeding per iodicity, and indirectly by altering the invertebrate prey base. The i ndividual effects will likely translate into changes at the population and community levels. We also speculate on how climatic change will a ffect Neotropical amphibians that are restricted ecologically and/or g eographically. We suggest directions for future research that will inc rease our ability to predict how amphibians in the New World tropics w ill respond to climatic change.