WILL THE DEAD-SEA DIE

The level of the Dead Sea (the lowest surface on Earth) is currently d eclining at a rate of 0.8 m/yr, and has dropped about 20 m since the b eginning of the twentieth century; it reached -410 m in 1997, We addre ss the question of whether the level of the Dead Sea will continue to decline. A numerical model, developed in this study to determine the w ater balance, accounts for the increase in salinity and the concomitan t decrease in the rate of evaporation that accompanies reduction in th e activity of the water. Simulations based on ranges of water withdraw al scenarios suggest that the Dead Sea will not ''die''; rather, a new equilibrium is likely to be reached in about 400 yr after a water-lev el decrease of 100 to 150 m.