THE IMPACT OF WELFARE BENEFITS ON THE CONJUGAL STATUS OF SINGLE MOTHERS IN CANADA - ESTIMATES FROM A HAZARD MODEL

This paper focuses on the determinants of the likelihood of a remarria ge (marriage) for female heads with children. Using retrospective data from Statistics Canada's 1990 Family History Survey, the sturdy attem pts to identity which socioeconomic characteristics of single mothers are conductive to conjugal union formation (formal or informal). Parti cular attention is given to external time-varying economic covariates, so as to disentangle the impact they exert on single mothers' propens ity to start living with a (new) partner The empirical analysis is car ried out using a proportional hazards model which permits the estimati on of the effects of various covariates on the hazard of exiling singl e parenthood The most striking result is the strong effect of provinci al welfare benefits on conjugal union formation. However the analysis reveals that single motherhood far from representing a final state, re mains a transitory situation for a majority of women.