STDSIM - A MICROSIMULATION MODEL FOR DECISION-SUPPORT IN STD CONTROL

STDSIM is a dynamic stochastic simulation model for decision support i n attempts to control sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). It describ es the mechanisms responsible for the transmission of five STDs, inclu ding HIV/AIDS, at the level of individuals. A large variety of outcome measures (for example, STD prevalence, incidence, and mortality) can be calculated for different groups of the population (for example, ado lescents, prostitutes, pregnant women, and migrants) to evaluate the e ffects of alternative STD control interventions. We designed the model to support decision making for different settings in developing count ries, with Nairobi (Kenya) as its first application area. The model ad equately describes STD prevalences and the time-trend of HIV prevalenc e measured in Nairobi. As an illustration of the possibilities of the model, we show model predictions of the effects of improved STD care a nd increased condom use on the prevalence and incidence of HIV.