INTEGRATED MODELING OF URBAN SHOPPING ACTIVITIES

This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to examine the fa ctors affecting urban out-of-home shopping activities. The framework c onsists of four integrated models: (1) children belief (binary legit) model; (2) mode choice (multiple legit) model; (3) duration (hazard) m odel; and (4) frequency (ordered probability) model. The output of the belief model, which captures the influence of children on shopping ac tivities, is used as input to the other three models. The models were estimated using disaggregate data collected in Amman, Jordan, through personal interviews of 570 commuters. Frequency models were estimated for three categories of shopping activities: (1) during home-to-work t rips; (2) during work-to-home trips; and (3) after work-to-home hips. The results demonstrated that the belief probability was primarily det ermined by household socioeconomic characteristics. Also, these charac teristics and the belief probability were significant in the mode choi ce, duration,and frequency models. The mode choice was significantly i nfluenced by the origin of shopping activity, type of postshopping act ivity and travel time to shopping activity. The duration was significa ntly influenced by the type of postshopping activity, origin of shoppi ng activity, and time of day. The frequency was significantly influenc ed by the travel distance from home to work. The results also showed t hat the frequency of shopping during different times of the day should be modeled separately, and that shopping duration and frequency are i nfluenced by the commuter's belief in the children's influence.