STOCHASTIC EPIDEMICS - THE EXPECTED DURATION OF THE ENDEMIC PERIOD INHIGHER-DIMENSIONAL MODELS

A method is presented to approximate the long-term stochastic dynamics of an epidemic modelled by state variables denoting the various class es of the population such as in SIR and SEIR model. The modelling incl udes epidemics in populations at different locations with migration be tween these populations. A logistic stochastic process for the total i nfectious population is formulated; it fits the long-term stochastic b ehaviour of the total infectious population in the full model. A good approximation is obtained if only the dynamics near the equilibria is fit. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.