AIR-POLLUTION AND DAILY MORTALITY IN ERFURT, EAST-GERMANY, 1980-1989

In Erfurt, Germany, unfavorable geography and emissions from coal burn ing lead to very high ambient pollution (up to about 4000 mug/m3 SO2 i n 1980-89). To assess possible health effects of these exposures, tota l daily mortality was obtained for this same period. A multivariate mo del was fitted, including corrections for long-term fluctuations, infl uenza epidemics, and meteorology, before analyzing the effect of pollu tion. The best fit for pollution was obtained for log (SO2 daily mean) with a lag of 2 days. Daily mortality increased by 10% for an increas e in SO2 from 23 to 929 mug/m3 (5% quantile to 95% quantile). A harves ting effect (fewer people dic on a given day if more deaths occurred i n the last 15 days) may modify this by +/- 2%. The effect for particul ates (SP, 1988-89 only) was stronger than the effect of SO2. Log SP (d aily mean) increasing from 15 mug/m3 to 331 mug/m3 (5% quantile to 95% quantile) was associated with a 22% increase in mortality. Depending on harvesting, the observable effect may lie between 14% and 27%. Ther e is no indication of a threshold or synergism. The effects of air pol lution are smaller than the effects of influenza epidemics and are of the same size as meteorologic effects. The results for the lower end o f the dose range are in agreement with linear models fitted in studies of moderate air pollution and episode studies.