WORLD-POPULATION GROWTH AND THE ROLE OF ANNUAL ENERGY USE PER-CAPITA

Is there a sustainable solution for the world and the resources it nee ds to maintain a decent standard of living for everybody, at a populat ion very much higher than today's? Clearly, there cannot be both a per manent growth in the use of materials and a sustainable future. In thi s article, the focus is on the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region; and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to sta bilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the so cial conditions which are believed to influence the fertility rate. Hi storical trends and near-term projections for energy use and populatio n growth rate are used to indicate a possible path in the future for d eveloping regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and mo dest cultural changes are invoked in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth For each decade, the incremental incr ease in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding de crease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach leads to po pulation changes following closely the projections of the World Bank f or the period up to 2150. The world energy use is projected to rise fr om about 9000 million tonnes of oil equivalent today to 15,000 to 21,0 00 Mtoe/a by the time the world's population has risen from 6 billion to around 12 billion people in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to see whether each developing region might be able to cope w ith its increased energy demand, without massive energy imports. It se ems that the availability of easily moveable, cheap fuels, requiring t he use of all energy sources, will be important to allowing the develo ping world to make the transition to a stable population with a decent standard of living. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.