THE GEORGE-WASHINGTON-UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES - A CONTINUOUS ASSESSMENT OF THE TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION

A method is presented for the continuous assessment of major technolog ical advances-the George Washington University (GWU) forecast of emerg ing technologies. Environmental scanning and trend analysis are used t o identify emerging technologies (ETs), and a Delphi-type survey then asks a panel of authorities to estimate the year each advance will occ ur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that wilt lead each ET. Eighty-five prominent ETs have been identified and grouped into 12 fields: energy, environment, farming a nd food, computer hardware, computer software, communications, informa tion services, manufacturing and robotics, materials, medicine, space, and transportation. Results are presented from four survey rounds cov ering the past 8 years, and they are compared longitudinally to estima te the range of variance. The data are also divided into three success ive decades to provide scenarios portraying the unfolding waves of inn ovation that comprise the coming technology revolution. (C) 1998 Elsev ier Science Inc.