A NEW APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF TICKET SPLITTING

A new solution to the ecological inference problem is used to examine split-ticket voting patterns across states and congressional districts in the 1988 elections. Earlier studies of ticket splitting used eithe r aggregate data, which suffer from the ''ecological fallacy'' and thr eaten individual-level inferences, or survey data from small, unrepres entative samples. We produce more accurate estimates of the proportion s of voters splitting their ballots in each state and district which e nables us to examine variations across geographical units. We also cla rify the connection between ticket splitting and divided government an d test several competing theories about the causes of both. We find co ntrary to balancing arguments, that voters are not intentionally split ting tickets to produce divided government and moderate policies. In m ost cases split outcomes are a by-product of lopsided congressional ca mpaigns that feature well-funded, high-quality candidates versus unkno wn competitors.