HOW WELL DO EXPERIENCED SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS PREDICT SOFTWARE CHANGE

Requirements-driven impact analysis (RDIA) identifies the set of softw are entities needed to be changed to implement a new requirement in an existing system. The input is a set of requirements and the existing system. The output is, for each requirement, a set of software entitie s that have to be changed. The output is used as input to many project -planning activities, for example cost estimation based on change volu me. This paper quantifies how well experienced software developers pre dict change by conducting RDIA, where RDIA in this case is the general activity of predicting changes based on change request. The means has been an empirical study of RDIA in the industrial object-oriented PMR -Project. RDIA has been carried out in two releases, R4 and R6, of thi s project as a normal part of project developers' work. This in-depth case-study has been carried out over four years and in close contact w ith project developers. The correctness of the prediction is high whil e problems with underprediction have been identified many more classes than predicted are changed. We have also found that project developer s are unaware of their own positive and negative capabilities in predi cting change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.