FLUOROCARBONS AND SULFUR-HEXAFLUORIDE (SF6) - A METHODOLOGY FOR NATIONAL EMISSION INVENTORIES AND SCENARIOS APPLIED TO THE NETHERLANDS

A six-step methodology for estimating use (Steps 1-5) and emissions (S tep 6) of fluorocarbons not regulated under the Montreal Protocol and SF6 has been described, to improve insight into emissions in the Nethe rlands. The last step is largely in line with methods applied in the a nnual AFEAS reports and under discussion within the IPCC, and estimate s HFCs, PFCs, FICs and SF6 released as the sum of (1) emission from co mpounds used as substitutes for ozone-depleting compounds (2) emission s due to SF6's historical market and (3) emissions from other industri al processes. Emissions in the Netherlands were estimated for scenario s assuming that the Montreal protocol will be implemented. Without add itional measures (reference scenario emissions of HFCs, PFCs, FICs and SF6 increase from 878 (metric) tons in 1990 to 6983 tons in 2020. In 2020 emissions are estimated to be about 21 Mt CO2 equivalents, or 13% of the CO2 target for that year (i.e. stabilization at the 2000 level ). Assuming maximum emission control through good housekeeping, recycl ing and waste destruction, emissions are 40-50% lower than in the no-c ontrol scenarios. The closed applications only scenario assumes use of these compounds to be restricted to stationary cooling and closed-foa m blowing. In this scenario, emissions are 15-25% (no-control case) an d 50-60% (maximum emission control case) lower than in the reference s cenario. Reductions up to 90% are found in the low-GWP scenario, assum ing an average Global Warming Potential of the mix of compounds used o f 250 or less.