Purpose. This study identifies how women naturally progress through th
e Transtheoretical Model stages of condom use over a 1 year period usi
ng the longitudinal dynamic methodology of latent transition analysis
(LTA). Design. As part of a larger study of human immunodeficiency vir
us risk in women, participants were assessed for their stage of condom
use two times, 1 year apart. Subjects. A total of 491 women who compl
eted both assessments of the study were included in this analysis. Mea
sures. Stage of condom use was assessed using two questions, which pla
ced women into one of five stages of change for condom use (alpha = .9
0). Results. Latent transition analysis identified the best-fitting mo
del of naturalistic stage progression, which included both forward and
backward movement. Precontemplation and maintenance were found to be
the most stable stages (more than 50 % of the participants remaining i
n that stage 1 year later), and the action stage was the least stable
(15 % remaining in this stage). Transition probabilities for all stage
s showed a high rate of relapse in the sample. Conclusions. A high pro
portion of women will remain within their stage of condom use over a 1
-year period if no intervention is introduced. Interventions that are
aimed at in creasing condom use in women need to incorporate relapse p
revention. In addition, the transition probabilities for the stages wi
ll help establish reasonable rates of change for intervention programs
.