THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON THE SOIL-MOISTURE REGIME OF SCOTTISH MINERAL SOILS

The likely impact of climate change on the moisture regime of Scottish soils and consequently on agriculture and land use has been addressed using a novel Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach. Current estimates of changes in summer precipitation by the year 2030 are 0% w ith an associated uncertainty of +/- 11%. This study considers the wor st case scenario of a decrease in rainfall by 11% which will lead to s ome low rainfall areas experiencing an increased drought risk, particu larly on lighter soils. Wet areas with heavy soils could benefit from an increase in the accessibility period for machinery. As the major ag ricultural land in Scotland is located on the relatively dry east coas t where localised problems due to drought are not uncommon even under the present climate, the detrimental effects of a decrease in rainfall for the whole of Scotland are therefore likely to outweigh the benefi ts. Approximately, 8% of Scotland has been identified in this study as soil/climate combinations which will be susceptible to drought should summer rainfall decrease by 11% and summer temperature increase by 1. 4-degrees-C.