INTEGRATING AND TESTING MODELS OF RIVALRY DURATION

Theory: Previously separate explanations of rivalry termination based in political shocks, security, and domestic politics can be integrated in a single model of bargaining between rational decision-makers who have multiple goals. Hypotheses from the previously separate models sh ould be tested together. Hypotheses: Security concerns, issue salience , democracy and democratization, regime change, and political shocks a ffect the probability of rivalry termination, and, in turn, rivalry du ration. Duration dependence may also affect rivalry duration. Methods: A parametric hazard model with a Weibull specification and time-varyi ng covariates is estimated on a data set of sixty-three enduring rival ries generated from the latest militarized interstate dispute data. Re sults: Domestic political factors and issue salience are the most like ly causes of rivalry termination. Rivalries also appear strongly and p ositively duration-dependent, meaning that the hazard rate in rivalrie s increases over time, and thus that rivalry termination tends to acce lerate as rivalries continue. Findings on political shocks and securit y concerns are sensitive to operationalization. Some causal relationsh ips appear to differ between pre- and post-WWII rivalries.