ECONOMICS, ENTITLEMENTS, AND SOCIAL-ISSUES - VOTER CHOICE IN THE 1996PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION

Theory: Contemporary theories of presidential election outcomes, espec ially the economic voting and spatial issue voting models, are used to examine voter choice in the 1996 presidential election. Hypotheses: F irst, we look at the effects of voter perceptions of the national econ omy on voter support for Clinton. Second, we look at the effects of ca ndidate and voter positions on ideology and on a number of issues. Las t, we examine whether voters' views on other issues-social issues such as abortion as well as issues revolving around entitlements and taxat ion that were emphasized by the campaigns-played significant roles in this election. Methods: We employ multinomial probit analysis of the 1 996 National Election Studies data and simulations based on counterfac tual scenarios which are based on different perceptions of macroeconom ic conditions and issue platforms of candidates. Results: The effects of economic perceptions are much greater than the effects of voter iss ue positions on the election outcome. This behavior by voters leaves p residents substantial room to shirk on policy issues. But, some social issues, namely abortion, play a role in determining the election outc ome. The presence of a third centrist candidate limited the ability of other candidates to improve their vote shares by moving in the issue space.