THE DEMOGRAPHY OF CLETHRIONOMYS RUFOCANUS - FROM MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL-MODELS TO FURTHER FIELD STUDIES

Until recently, most studies on microtines have focused on patterns in population dynamics or demography without providing a quantitative as sessment of the robustness of the inferred patterns as well as a link between demography and population dynamics. Developments in statistica l time-series analysis on the one hand and in capture-recapture statis tical modelling on the other hand, now allow for improved analyses. We review some of the recent developments in the capture-recapture stati stical methodology - restricting ourselves to methods most relevant to the demography of small mammals. A 5-years study of the gray-sided vo le Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan was used as an example t o explore some models. We then provided a framework for further demogr aphic analysis of microtine populations, including C. rufocanus. Inves tigating the relative importance of the different demographic paramete rs (e.g. survival, maturation, dispersal) will require studies done on larger scale than is commonly done today, with more effort devoted to the low density phase. Special emphasis is given to study-design, and to experimental designs tailored to the study of specific demographic mechanisms.