INTERVAL BREAST CANCERS IN AN AUSTRALIAN MAMMOGRAPHIC SCREENING-PROGRAM

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurr ed in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammograph ic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Serv ice of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rat es per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 0 00 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence inte rval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 year s age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group ( 95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the pr oportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Centra l & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas scre ening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population . Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-c ancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requir es age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.