SERIAL CHANGES IN BLOOD-PRESSURE FROM CHILDHOOD INTO YOUNG ADULTHOOD FOR FEMALES IN RELATION TO BODY-MASS INDEX AND MATURATIONAL AGE

This study determines: (1) patterns of change from childhood to young adulthood in body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), (2) effects of elevated BMI values on changes in blood pressures (BP), (3) extent of tracking for SEP, DBP, and BMI, and (4) prediction of future risk for elevated BP from earli er values. Annual serial BP and BMI data were available for 198 white females, ages 8-22 years, enrolled in the Fels Longitudinal Study. Pat terns of change in BMI: were described by a random effects model with a time series model for the correlated residuals. Serial BMI measures were differentiated from age-specific means to measure relative indivi dual BMI levels. Serial BP were analyzed using a similar model to the BMI where relative individual BMI levels were included as an explanato ry variable. There was a general increasing trend for SEP, DBP, and BM I from 8-22 years, but the rates of increase declined with age. At the same chronological age, early menarche females had a significantly gr eater BMI mean value than late menarche females. An average increase o f 1 kg/m(2) in deviation from BMI population means resulted in an aver age increase of 1.2 mmHg in SEP and 0.6 mmHg in DBP. Having SEP and DB P levels 1 standard deviation above mean levels, relative to females a t mean levels, as early as age 9 represents an odds ratio of 2 for exc eeding national 75th percentile levels of SEP and DBP at age 21. (C) 1 998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.