THE USE OF A PHENOLOGY MODEL AND OF RISK ANALYSES FOR PLANNING BUCKWHEAT (FAGOPYRUM-ESCULENTUM) SOWING DATES IN ALPINE AREAS

A published temperature-dependent phenology model constructed for repr esenting buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum) development has been calibra ted. The model considers the phenophases of sowing to emergence, of em ergence to first anthesis, and of first an thesis to physiological mat urity. It is used for the strategic planning of buckwheat production i n Alpine ar eas and predicts the latest possible solving dates in area s of the Swiss cantons of the Grisons and of the Ticino as well as of the Italian province of Sondrio. The area-specific elate is calculated by taking into account a probability of 1% for crop failure which occ urs when the crop is exposed to temperatures < 2.5 degrees C before it reaches physiological maturity. To account for operational constraint s, we have anticipated the calculated sowing elate by 10 days, During a given year, buckwheat should be considered as the only crop at high altitudes, while it cart be cultivated as a catch crop, after cereals for example, at low altitudes. The results show that the model efficie ntly makes use of existing information and provides useful recommendat ions far experimental work. The model is also a valuable tool for farm ers interested in growing buckwheat in the areas under study. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd All rights reserved.