Using a theoretical framework developed by Professor Akira Arimoto to
describe recent changes in the Japanese system of higher education, Ro
bert Zemsky discusses what happens when higher education becomes the n
orm in a society and when this massification of a higher education sys
tem gives way to post-massification. Zemsky demonstrates how, in the c
urrent era of post-massification, American higher education is a syste
m under duress, at a time when the economy, shifting demographics, and
political lassitude have forced a restructuring of the enterprise. He
examines trends such as the price-income squeeze, where the economic
returns to college have fallen while the cost has risen; the bifurcati
on of institutions into outlets and medallions; the reduced demand for
young workers; and the dynamics of local labor and education markets.
Zemsky concludes that, once the market for college graduates becomes
saturated in a locality, the boundary between massification and post-m
assification is crossed, leading to a restratification of both educati
onal attainment and economic advantage.