A PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ACCIDENTAL RELEASES FROM NUCLEAR-POWER-PLANTS IN EUROPE

The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large s cale contamination of Europe. At present, over 200 nuclear power react ors for commercial electricity production are operational in Europe. A n integrated assessment of probabilistic cancer mortality risks due to possible accidental releases from the European nuclear power plants i s provided. Location specific risks are presented in maps of Europe. T he excess mortality risk due to the combined operation of the European nuclear power plants is estimated to be about 10 X 10(-8) per year in western Europe. Going East the risks increase gradually to over 1000 X 10(-8) per year in regions of the former Soviet Union, where reactor s of the Chernobyl type are located. The nuclear power plants in easte rn Europe dominate the estimated risk pattern and contribute at least 40-50% to the average risk in western Europe. (C) 1998 Elsevier Scienc e B.V. All rights reserved.