RISK AND DECISION-ANALYSIS OF GROUNDWATER PROTECTION ALTERNATIVES ON THE EUROPEAN SCALE WITH EMPHASIS ON NITRATE AND ALUMINUM CONTAMINATIONFROM DIFFUSE SOURCES

Stochastic simulation of nitrate and aluminium contamination of ground water from diffuse sources on the European scale was performed. The re sults were used for two purposes in this paper: (1) to describe possib le economical implications resulting from the uncertainties in contami nant modelling on the European scale and (2) to perform societal monet ary decision analysis on alternatives to reduce contamination risks. T he risk was treated as a probabilistic cost for exceeding existing wat er quality standards. A risk-cost minimization model was used for the decision analysis, considering all investment costs and risks of each alternative. The analysis was performed using the Netherlands as a stu dy area and the cost of failure was based on the value of groundwater as a drinking water resource. The risk reduction alternatives included in the analysis were two emission reduction scenarios given by the II ASA RAINS model: the Current Reduction Plans (CRP) scenario and the Ma ximum Feasible Reductions (MFR) scenario. The study indicates that the uncertainties result in prediction intervals for the economical outco mes of the two scenarios of 2.7 to 5.1 billion ECUs over a 15-year sim ulation period. The study also indicates that the CRP scenario is the economically most advantageous alternative, given the economical assum ptions made. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.