The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between ph
ysical and psychological risk factors on the one hand, and the occurre
nce of new episodes of back pain on the other hand. A prospective stud
y was conducted with 12 months follow-up by means of self-administered
questionnaires. The study took place in the Cargo Department of a maj
or Dutch airline company. The subjects for this study were 270 workers
involved in heavy physical work. Only workers without back pain at ba
seline were included. Self-reported back pain and sick leave due to ba
ck pain during the follow-up period were measured. Of the 238 workers
included in the analysis, 73 (31%) developed a new episode of back pai
n during the follow-up period, and 27 (11%) subjects reported sick lea
ve due to back pain. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that
the history of back pain was the best predictor for the occurrence of
a new episode of back pain during follow-up (OR 9.8; 95% CI 2.8-34.4
for subjects who had back pain more than twice in the past year). Low
job satisfaction was also associated with an increased risk for the oc
currence of back pain during follow-up (OR 1.2; 95% CI 1.01-1.4). Ridi
ng a forklift truck appeared to be a protective factor for the occurre
nce of back pain (OR 0.7; 95% CI 0.5-0.99). In this study the best pre
dictors for the occurrence of back pain were the history of back compl
aints and low job satisfaction. Although it needs to be confirmed by f
uture intervention studies, the results indicate that increasing job s
atisfaction may be a successful (co-)intervention for the prevention o
f back pain at the workplace. (C) 1998 International Association for t
he Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.