FORECASTING SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH-AFRICA

Reluctant reconciliation is taking shape in South Africa. The forced m arriage between the National Party and the African National Congress r esults from a balance of forces where neither side can defeat the othe r. The emergence of multiracial domination has surprised most observer s who saw the battle about legalized racism as a clear moral issue. De velopments have also been widely misunderstood owing to the tendency t o apply false colonial analogies or popular stereotypes of violent tri balism. Scenario-planning exercises enjoy great popularity in a societ y beset by anxiety and ideological confusion. Rather than reviewing th e various scenarios sketched by others, this article selects three cou rses as played out in other countries and compares South Africa to the se models. By exploring the similarities between South Africa and Zimb abwe, Yugoslavia and Germany, lessons are drawn about desirable polici es in the post-apartheid era.