PREDICTING CALANUS-FINMARCHICUS ABUNDANCE FROM A CLIMATIC SIGNAL

Long-term fluctuations in the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarc hicus in the north-east Atlantic are compared to the North Atlantic Os cillation index over the period 1958-1995. The strong climate-plankton link previously observed is confirmed and a simple linear regression model is constructed with the aim of predicting the abundance of the s pecies several months in advance. For the years 1993-1995 the model pr edictions are in accordance with observations, but not in 1996 when th e abundance of C. finmarchicus fell, although the climatic scenario in dicated that a sharp increase should have occurred. The potential caus es of this discrepancy are discussed.