HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SIMULATION OF PRECIPITATION AND EVALUATION WITHDOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATION

Surface precipitation is a key input parameter for hydrologic models. Validation of the precipitation field simulated by an atmospheric mode l is a first step in the development of a coupled atmospheric-hydrolog ic model. The objective of the present study is to simulate the surfac e precipitation using MC2 (Mesoscale Compressible Community Model) in a self-nesting mode. Two heavy rain cases in Quebec are examined. Usin g the first case (October 14-15, 1995), model parameters are adjusted to obtain a good simulation of the precipitation, when compared with t hat retrieved from Doppler radar measurements. The model is then appli ed to the second case (November 8-9, 1996) with no further tuning. The highest resolution used in both studies is 6 km. The spatial distribu tion of the simulated precipitation is very similar to that retrieved from radar measurements. The difference between the magnitude of the M C2 precipitation and radar estimates is of the same order as the uncer tainty of the latter. A time shift is found in the simulated precipita tion fields, which increases with the forecast lead time. (C) 1998 Pub lished by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.