NUCLEAR-POWER IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY-ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM

Reducing the CO2 emission to cope with the global warming is one of th e most challenging issues for the global energy system. Among various technological options for reducing the CO2 emissions from energy produ ction, nuclear power is expected to play a key role if accepted by the society. However, there have been fewer model analyses reported recen tly on the role of nuclear power in the global energy system when comp ared with the analyses of the other options such as energy efficiency improvements, renewable energies, and CO2 recovery and disposal. This paper presents, with a newly developed global energy model, a numerica l analysis on the value of nuclear option in the global energy system, particularly in terms of CO2 mitigation. With the global energy model , which finds the cost minimum energy system over the time range of 19 95-2055, the value of nuclear power is analyzed. The model incorporate s detailed descriptions of energy conversion technologies which includ e, besides electricity generation, various liquefaction and gasificati on processes of hydrocarbon fuels with the options of CO2 recovery and disposal. For nuclear technologies, LWRs (light water reactors) and F BRs (fast breeder reactors) are taken into account with fuel cycle opt ions. Major findings are: 1) LWRs would be introduced at the maximum l evel into the cost minimum energy system if their economics is slightl y improved from the standard assumption; however, 2) the maximum intro duction of LWRs would make only a small effect in reducing the global CO2 emissions; 3) FBRs would be introduced at an almost maximum scale when the stabilization of global CO2 emission is required; 4) the role of FBRs in reducing the global CO2 emission is very robust against th e deterioration of their economics; and 5) IGCC (integrated coal gasif ication combined cycle power generation) with CO2 recovery would repla ce the role when FBRs are not introduced, (C) 1997 Published by Elsevi er Science Ltd.