ESTIMATING SEXUAL-BEHAVIOR PARAMETERS FROM ROUTINE SEXUAL-BEHAVIOR DATA

In mathematical models for predicting the spread of sexually transmitt ed diseases (STDs), the rate of acquisition of new sex partners and co ncurrency, the number of simultaneous sexual partnerships, are importa nt parameters. Yet, information on these parameters is rarely obtained in routine sexual behavior surveys; instead, questions about the tota l number of sex partners during specific periods are often asked. We p resent two methods that estimate the rate of partnership acquisition a nd concurrency from reported numbers of sex partners in two overlappin g periods. The first method assumes homogeneous behavior; while the se cond method also takes account of heterogeneity in sexual behavior: Bo th methods assume random (Poisson) partnership acquisition and the pos sibility of overlap in relationships. For both methods it might be rel evant to distinguish individuals who are in a stable relationship from those who are not.