Ae. Scorcu et R. Cellini, ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY AND CRIME IN THE LONG-RUN - AN EMPIRICAL-INVESTIGATION ON AGGREGATE DATA FROM ITALY, 1951-1994, International review of law and economics, 18(3), 1998, pp. 279-292
The paper analyzes the economic determinants of crime rates in Italy o
ver the period 1951 to 1994. We show that cointegrating relationships
connect the long-run equilibrium levels of crime rates to economic fac
tors in the presence of endogenously determined structural breaks. The
long-run pattern of homicides and robberies can be better explained b
y consumption, whereas thefts are better explained by unemployment. (C
) 1998 by Elsevier Science Inc.