HOW RATIONAL IS THE RATIONAL PUBLIC - EVIDENCE FROM US PUBLIC-OPINIONON MILITARY SPENDING

Specialists on U.S. public opinion and foreign policy have rejected th e Almond-Lippmann consensus, which implied public attitudes were dange rously erratic, and have moved in varying degrees toward a view of pub lic opinion as rational. Consensus on this new view would be premature . The revisionists have not yet addressed all elements of the traditio nal critique of the American public. In particular, they have overlook ed the thesis of postwar foreign policy realists that the public react s to foreign threats too slowly and then too strongly. This article pr esents a preliminary test of the classical realist hypotheses, through an analysis of public opinion on military spending from 1965 to 1991. On balance, the results favor the rational public perspective. Some c aveats, however, suggest the need for further research before the trad itional, negative view of the public should be rejected.