CALCULATION OF WATER-BALANCE COMPONENTS OVER THE CASPIAN-SEA WATERSHED WITH A SET OF ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS

A comparison of the annual cycle of total cloudiness, precipitation, s now mass, and evaporation with observational data obtained over the wa tershed of the Volga and Ural rivers and the Caspian Sea is carried ou t using the results of global climate calculations performed with 21 a tmospheric general circulation models within the AMIP program. The mea n errors and the errors of the annual cycle in calculations of the abo ve characteristics over the watershed are estimated for each model. Fr om average annual water balance data for the watershed and the sea are a that have been calculated with the atmospheric models, variations of the Caspian Sea level are estimated and thereafter, compared with obs ervational data. An analysis of the interannual variability of the wat er balance shows that precipitation variations over the watershed play a determining role in interannual sea level oscillations.