PREDICTING THE INSTITUTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERM LIMITS

In this paper we develop a model to predict the seniority turnover, an d transition consequences of term limit reforms for any institution wi th a regularized procedure for rotating membership. With this model we can predict the number of members who will be serving in their last t erm at any given time once an institution reaches a stable state under term limit reforms. For example, our results show that for the U.S. S enate current term limit proposals will result in a substantial increa se in the number of ''lame duck'' members and a significant reduction in average seniority. We make no claims as to the public policy effect s of term limit proposals. However, our model can be used to design a proposal that will maximize any benefits or minimize any public policy effects found to be associated with term limit reforms.