The value of measuring soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) in the
sera of patients with joint pain as a predicting parameter for the fut
ure development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was examined. sIL-2R was
measured by the ELISA method. Sixty-four patients with joint pain (sus
pected RA: sus-RA) but no bone or joint destruction were enrolled over
2 years and 47 were selected for the study. Eleven patients whose dia
gnosis was sus-RA after a year of observation were successively follow
ed-up for 5 years. Two-thirds of the patients whose sIL-2R levels were
higher than those of normal healthy adults (< 82 pmol/l; mean +2SD) d
eveloped RA within a year. On the other hand, one-quarter of the patie
nts with normal levels of sIL-2R also developed RA within a year. The
presence of two or three of the following three items in patients with
joint pain without any bone and joint destruction was thus indicated
to be useful for the early diagnosis of RA: elevated CRP level (greate
r than or equal to 1.0 mg/dl), positive rheumatoid factor (RF) (greate
r than or equal to 30 IU/ml) and an elevated sIL-2R level (greater tha
n or equal to 100 pmol/l). Sensitivity and specificity were 72.7% and
96.0%, respectively. The probability of development of RA is expressed
as P = 1/[1 + exp(2.673 - 0.01784 x sIL-2R - 0.4398 x CRP - 0.004835
x RF)], with R-2 = 0.3083 and p<0.0005. On the other hand, the sIL-2R
levels did not correlate with any future bone or joint changes within
a year of observation. The above criteria may therefore hopefully just
ify the early treatment of patients with joint pain using drugs that c
an modify the patients' immune function. However, the validity of thes
e criteria still need to be examined more thoroughly in the future.