MICROGEOGRAPHY OF A REPUBLICAN REVOLUTION - 1992, 1994, AND 1996 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT CHANGE IN WASHINGTON-STATE

Change in the partisan vote for Congress between 1992 and 1996 is exam ined for four congressional districts in the greater Seattle, WA area, where a marked shift from Democratic representation occurred in 1994. The analysis attempts to disaggregate the change into four components : that due to a pervasive shift in partisan sentiment; that due to dif ferential change across districts, because of their contextual charact er; that due to identity with the district and its incumbents, a place effect; and that due to normal midterm drop in turnout. Support was f ound for all four propositions. A general sentiment shift and turnout effect occurred 1992-1994, influenced as well by differential change a mong social groups and across districts, while from 1994-1996, a parti al Democratic recovery took place, but only among some groups and in s ome districts. Loss in Democratic support was greatest in suburban are as dominated by families with children. Thus context and place both ma tter. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd.