MODELING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION STRATEGIES IN THE NORTHERN RIO-GRANDE VALLEY, NEW-MEXICO

Diversification in agricultural techniques is a common strategy of ris k minimization in nonindustrial societies. However, attribution of sub optimal behavior to risk minimization without consideration of the str ucture of risk and its environmental context obscures the complexity o f agricultural decision-making. The productive potential of a prehisto ric agricultural system that includes floodwater and dry farming and s tream irrigation is modeled using Geographic formation System (GIS) an alysis to evaluate whether diversification occurred as a response to p opulation pressure or as a risk buffering strategy. The estimated prod uctive potential of floodwater and irrigation farming is sufficient to have supported the estimated local population, suggesting that risk b uffering is a more likely explanation. I;Floodwater farming and stream irrigation form a dual strategy that is effective at reducing risk. H owever, the potential of dry farming for subsistence production is ins ufficient for buffering more than a 2% productive shortfall. We propos e that, within this generally risk-averse economy, dry farming was ori ented toward the production of nonsubsistence crops such as cotton.