ELECTORAL CONTINUITY AND CHANGE, 1868-1996

This article examines theoretical and historical issues raised by Dona ld Stokes's classic 1960s articles on ''Party Loyalty and the Likeliho od of Deviating Elections,'' ''On the Existence of Forces Restoring Pa rty Competition,'' and ''Parties and the Nationalization of Electoral Forces.'' I use presidential election returns from 1868 to 1996 and a simple regression model to measure partisan, national, and sub-nationa l forces in each election. My analysis suggests that the contemporary American electoral system is significantly more nationalized than the electoral system of a century ago, but no less partisan, no more volat ile, and no less subject to competitive reequilibration. (C) 1998 Else vier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.