USING ECA SURVEY DATA TO EXAMINE THE EFFECT OF JOB LAYOFFS ON VIOLENTBEHAVIOR

Objective: The study examined two hypotheses: that being laid off incr eases the likelihood of violence and that being employed in an industr y in which employment is unexpectedly low decreases the likelihood of violence. Methods; Logistic regression analyses were used to examine d ata for more than 4,000 persons who participated in initial and follow -up interviews as part of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area survey. Dat a for persons who were working and not violent at the time of the init ial interview but who were unemployed at reinterview were examined, as were data for persons who remained employed in industries with low em ployment levels. Results: The risk of violent behavior of those who we re laid off was nearly six times higher than that of their employed co unterparts. Controlling for concurrent psychiatric disorder did not re veal a lower risk. The risk of violent behavior was reduced among thos e who remained employed in industries where layoffs were occurring Con clusions: Economic contraction seems to affect violence in the communi ty in two countervailing processes-one process increases violence and one reduces it. However, the net effect may well be that violence decr eases in communities experiencing economic contraction.