RAIL TRACK EXPANSION IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES IN THE 1980S

Per capita income, country size, and economic growth are often seen as being major determinants of rail track expansion in developing countr ies. However, we could not empirically verify these explanations for r ail expansion using recent World Bank data for a set of 35 developing countries. Instead, a factor analysis suggested multilateral loans to have been important. A discriminant analysis indicated only four varia bles are needed to predict a country's correct grouping into either a high and low rail expansion group. Regression analysis indicates that 1970s investment offset 1980s investment for the entire sample and the high expansion group. For the low expansion group, a factor capturing the quality of life appears to be the most important predictor of rai l investment. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.