MOTIVATION AND ACCURACY IN ESTIMATING OPINION DISTRIBUTIONS - A SURVEY EXPERIMENT

This paper explores the question of accuracy in the estimation of I,pi nion distributions. Based on survey data on 24 issues, it finds that p eople are not very good in their exact numerical estimates, but they d o much better in identifying the majority opinion on an issue. The pap er further examines the role of motivation for accuracy through a surv ey experiment. The results indicate that the respondents tried harder when motivated, but did not improve their estimates, neither of the ex act distribution nor of the majority opinion.