NEW PROCEDURES TO ESTIMATE WATER TEMPERATURES AND WATER DEPTHS FOR APPLICATION IN CLIMATE-DENGUE MODELING

Two new approaches have been developed to estimate water temperatures and water depths in containers that commonly are used as breeding site s for mosquitoes, the primary; vectors of dengue viruses. These estima tes are incorporated in recently developed stochastic simulation model s used to describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Water temperature estimates are provided throug h a regression model that includes meteorological variables not previo usly used; results show that they are significantly better than those used in previous dengue transmission models. Water depth models use a climatic water budget approach which estimates moisture storage within containers. The water depth models are less precise than those develo ped for water temperature; however, results are superior to those used in previous models. These new approaches should improve estimates of the impact of water conditions an dengue vectors.