VALUING THE IMPACT OF LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL CHANGE IN A MARKET - THEEFFECT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON US TIMBER

This paper establishes a methodology for valuing the impact of large-s cale ecological changes in a market. Given the large capital stocks in herent in most ecological systems, the dynamic nature of most ecologic al change, and the dynamic response of markets, it is critical to buil d dynamic models to capture the resulting effects. This paper demonstr ates how to construct such a model using the impacts of climate change on U.S. timber markets as an example. Across a wide range of scenario s and models, warming is predicted to expand timber supplies and thus benefit U.S. timber markets.